Mini-Symposium (MS) proposal to the organizers of the APSSRA’2016 conference.

I already told some of my friends/collaborators of our MS and ask them to attend if possible. Would you please pass it onto your network as well? Thanks a lot.

The 6th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and Its

Applications APSSRA’2016, Tongji University, Shanghai, China, May

28-30, 2016, http://www.apssra2016.org/

deadline for abstracts May 30, 2015

Proposed Mini-Symposium on Epistemic Uncertainties In Engineering

— Modelling, Methods And Applications

Organizers: Wei Gao, Hao Zhang, Michael Beer, Vladik Kreinovich

Wei Gao, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University

of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia.

Hao Wang, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney,

Sydney NSW 2006, Australia.

Michael Beer, Institute for Risk & Uncertainty, University of

Liverpool, Brodie Tower, Brownlow Street, Liverpool L69 3GQ, UK

Vladik Kreinovich, Department of Computer Science University of

Texas at El Paso 500 W. University El Paso, TX 79968, USA

E-mail: w.gao@unsw.edu.au, H.Zhang@civil.usyd.edu.au,

mbeer@liverpool.ac.uk, vladik@utep.edu.

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering practice due to

inherent variability and lack of knowledge. Realistically

quantifying uncertainties in analysis and design of engineering

systems is crucial. Probabilistic methods have been developed

extensively for this purpose and have led to great achievements.

Significant research is increasingly devoted to problematic cases,

which involve, for example, limited information, human factors,

subjectivity and experience, linguistic assessments, imprecise

measurements, dubious information, unclear physics, etc. In this

context, two pathways have been proposed to account for epistemic

uncertainties. First, subjective probabilities are utilized to

quantify expert knowledge on an intuitive basis in form of a

belief. The most popular implementation of subjective

probabilities in engineering is observed in Bayesian approaches.

Second, non-probabilistic concepts have attracted considerable

attention to in forms of interval methods and fuzzy methods. These

are most suitable when the available information appears in a

bounded manner with no probabilistic characteristics. The

usefulness of both concepts has been demonstrated in practical

applications. Quantification concepts and numerical methods for

processing subjective probabilities as well as fuzzy sets and

intervals in engineering analyses have already reached remarkable

capabilities.

This mini-symposium aims to bundle and disseminate the latest

developments of handling epistemic uncertainties in engineering.

Contributions are invited with emphasis on theory, numerical

methods and applications of both the non-probabilistic framework

and subjective probabilities. These may address specific technical

or mathematical details, conceptual developments and solution

strategies, individual solutions, and may also provide overviews

and comparative studies. Topics may include modelling,

quantification, analysis, design, decision-making, monitoring and

control in broad engineering areas.